‘Barbie’ and ‘Oppenheimer’ Could Drive the Box Office to a $4 Billion Summer
“Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” had fantastic second weekends of $93 million and $46.2 million, respectively. In an alternate universe, those sophomore takes would be respectable openings. Instead, 10 days in “Barbie” domestic is at $350 million and “Oppenheimer” is $174 million.
Add foreign and “Barbie” is already $774 million, well on her way to crossing $1 billion and beyond. “Oppenheimer” is $400 million. Combined, they should easily pass $2 billion.
This is fantastic news that could drive the summer to $4 billion, the magic number that exhibitors floated at April’s CinemaCon as a reasonable hope/best-case scenario. What the exhibitors didn’t predict, however, was a summer in which almost every franchise would fall short — sometimes, very short — of reasonable expectations. Two weeks ago, only an optimist would project as much as $3.6 million for the season.
Also unforeseen was the Barbenheimer effect and its ability to drive real excitement about going to the movies — followed by the actors’ and writers strikes’ delaying film releases and undercutting that momentum.
Through this weekend, summer 2023 grossed around $3.06 billion. Five weeks plus Labor Day remain and the new “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles” (Paramount) opens Wednesday, with strong advance word.
The weekend’s $215 million total is up from $98 million is 2022. Year to date is up 20 percent, which projects to $8.9 billion. That might seem like a lowball figure, but we have to account for the prospect of many top fall and holiday films moving to next year.
This weekend, six films grossed above $10 million. That is exceedingly rare, even adjusting for higher ticket prices. Previous examples have fallen over Thanksgiving or Christmas, when top openings often overlap.
Also noted: Of those six, only one comes from a franchise. The last time we saw six titles over $10 million was over Thanksgiving 2018, when four of those movies were franchises.
We can put an asterisk next to “Haunted Mansion” (Disney), which is not part of a franchise but almost certainly was made in hopes that it could become one. Directed by the very talented Justin Simien, production cost was $150 million but it grossed just $24.2 million and only $9 million foreign. After “Indiana Jones,” “Elemental,” and “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania”, it is the studio’s fourth very expensive major disappointment this year.
“The Sound of Freedom” (Angel) fell only 37 percent to gross $12.4 million, with $149 million to date. It should reach $200 million domestic, which means it will surpass eight major-studio brand-name titles: the “Mission: Impossible,” “Indiana Jones,” “Transformers,” Fast X,” “John Wick,” and “Transformers” sequels, as well as Pixar’s “Elemental” and DC’s “The Flash.” Most of those films cost well over $200 million before marketing.
Despite the competition, and perhaps aided by “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” sellouts, Australian Sundance breakout “Talk to Me” took sixth place with just over $10 million. This exceeded expectations, with similar A24 low-budget entries normally falling below this level. However, A24 could draw on its reputation for genre taste as well as positive reviews, and the constant thirst for original horror films.
“Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount) took fifth in its third weekend with $10.7 million. It stands at $309 million worldwide and will likely fall short of $450 million. The previous installment, 2019’s “Fallout,” grossed nearly $800 million. Already, it’s lost 1,130 theaters and it’s on fewer screens than “Sound of Freedom,” which added 126.
The surprise #10 film is Indian rom-com “Rocky Aur Rani Kii Prem Kahaani” (Moviegoers). Unlike many recent subcontinental films to do well domestically, it again is an original, non-franchise title. Sense a trend?
The specialized arena saw multiple new releases, led by a strong single-theater response to Magnolia’s trans sex workers documentary “Kokomo City,” which grossed over $16,000 in New York. National Geographic documentary “Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Variance) grossed $18,000 in two initial dates. Going wider with 581 theaters, the animated (and very well reviewed) “The First Slam Dunk” (GKids) saw $626,000.
“Asteroid City” and “Past Lives” gave hope for a specialized revival, but Christian Petzold’s “Afire” (Janus/Sideshow) could muster only $33,000 in 44 theaters. Searchlight’s more-commercial “Theater Camp,” which featured a slower-than-usual rollout to build word of mouth, grossed $635,000 and now is in 295 theaters for a per-theater average of $2,153. That compares to $3,600 with similar theaters for “Past Lives,” a far less expensive investment.
The Top 10
1. Barbie (Warner Bros. Discovery) Week 2; Last weekend #1
$93,000,000 (-43%) in 4,337 (+94) theaters; PTA (per theater average): $21,443; Cumulative: $351,403,000
2. Oppenheimer (Universal) Week 2; Last weekend #2
$46,200,000 (-44%) in 3,647 (+37) theaters; PTA: $12,668; Cumulative: $174,060,000
3. Haunted Mansion (Disney) NEW – Cinemascore: B+; Metacritic: 48; Est. budget: $150 million
$24,200,000 in 3,740 theaters; PTA: $6,471; Cumulative: $24,200,000
4. Sound of Freedom (Angel) Week 4; Last weekend #3
$12,409,000 (-37%) in 3,411 (+126) theaters); PTA: $3,638; Cumulative: $148,972,000
5. Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning: Part One (Paramount) Week 3; Last weekend #4
$10,725,000 (-45%) in 3,191 (-1,130) theaters; PTA: $3,361; Cumulative: $139,233,000
6. Talk to Me (A24) NEW – Cinemascore: B+; Metacritic: 76; Est. budget: $4.5 million
$10,029,000 in 2,340 theaters; PTA: $4,286; Cumulative: $10,029,000
7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Disney) Week 5; Last weekend #5
$4,000,000 (-40%) in 2,165 (-720) theaters; PTA: $1,848; Cumulative: $167,084,000
8. Elemental (Disney) Week 7; Last weekend #7
$3,400,000 (-41%) in 2,105 (-615) theaters; PTA: $1,615; Cumulative: $144,984,000
9. Insidious: The Red Door (Sony) Week 4; Last weekend #6
$3,175,000 (-52%) in 1,914 (-640) theaters; PTA: $1,659; Cumulative: $78,082,000
10. Rocky Aur Rani Kii Prem Kahaani (Moviegoer) NEW
$1,574,000 in 360 theaters; PTA: $4,371; Cumulative: $1,574,000
Other specialized titles
Films (limited, expansions of limited, as well as awards-oriented releases) are listed by week in release, starting with those opened this week; after the first two weeks, only films with grosses over $5,000 are listed.
The First Slam Dunk (GKids) NEW – Metacrtitic: 87
$625,611 in 581 theaters; PTA: $1,077
Kokomo City (Magnolia) NEW – Metacrtitic: 78; Festivals include: Sundance, Berlin, South by Southwest 2023
$16,650 in 1 theaters; PTA: $16,650
The Essential Church (Atlas) NEW
$250,000 in theaters; PTA: $831
The Beasts (Greenwich) NEW – Metacrtitic: 82; Festivals include: Cannes 2022
$5,000 in 1 theater; PTA: $5,000
Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Variance) NEW – Festivals include: Venice, Telluride 2022
$18,200 in 2 theaters; PTA: $9,100
The Unknown Country (Music Box) NEW – Metacrtitic: 82; Festivals include: South by Southwest 2022
$10,127 in 3 theaters; PTA: $3,406
Sympathy for the Devil (IFC) NEW – Metacrtitic: 54
$5,400 in 28 theaters; PTA: $192
Theater Camp (Searchlight) Week 3
$634,000 in 295 (+244) theaters; PTA: $2,153; Cumulative: $1,506,000
Afire (Janus/Sideshow) Week 3
$32,815 in 44 (+36) theaters; Cumulative: $124,654
The Miracle Club (Sony Pictures Classics) Week 3
$103,152 in 121 (-150) theaters; Cumulative: $1,612,000
Lakota Nation vs. United States (IFC) Week 3
$6,000 in 16 (+13) theaters; Cumulative: $22,750
Have You Got It Yet? (Abramorama) Week 3
$17,739 in 26 (+23) theaters; Cumulative: $40,325
Asteroid City (Focus) Week 6; also on PVOD
$151,000 in 124 theaters (-170); Cumulative: $27,643,000
32 Sounds (Abramorama) Week 14
$12,325 in 3 theaters; Cumulative: $116,873
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